March Madness Trends: 3 To Trust And 3 To Avoid

Most seed-versus-seed results must be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no rejecting the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness trend. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce earnings for those the No. 12 seed - at least against the spread.


Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matches. Over the previous five Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 competition Round of 64.


Don't simply blindly bank on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this trend with regard - like managing a cobra.


Three patterns to fade


There's a surplus of shallow March Madness wagering trends out there that you must never blindly route when positioning your bets or building your bracket. Here's the idea of the iceberg.


Conference patterns


Certain conferences will have more powerful historical ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, but the teams, opponents, gamers and spreads all differ when constructing out this bull crap. The total strength of conferences sways every year, so do not go chasing after the SEC teams or fading ACC schools based entirely on those conferences' counts versus the spread.


Seed vs. Seed trends


We've singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which damaged a lot of "savvy" brackets with all four No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors need to tread lightly with that details and more so with other trends around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball appears to be widening by the season, so do not base a bet exclusively on the Selection Committee's seeding.


Point spread and Over/Under trends


Brace yourself for some doozies when it comes to any historical NCAA Tournament trends powered by spreads and totals. You'll get alluring trends around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a specific point range and Over/Under ideas based upon previous overalls from certain seeding matchups.


As discussed, some patterns can lead you down the right handicapping road but a number of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be skeptical of these patterns and look into the past results that powered them. If you can, attempt to find a story behind them that could roll over into this year's March Madness field.


How sportsbooks deal with March Madness trends


Perhaps the finest way to assess how helpful March Madness betting trends are is to take a look at the folks setting the odds for March Madness.


If you ask an oddsmaker if they're considering the past versus the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 matchup odds, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mainly ignore historic patterns, particularly in college sports, as gamer and skill turnover differs considerably from year-to-year.


Oddsmakers base their numbers on existing kind and information from that season rather than historical hoo-ha pulling from random teams with random players led by random coaches from random conferences playing at random sites. You get the concept.


The decision on March Madness trends


Basketball wagerers must be cautious of numerous March Madness patterns. While betting on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be gained from examining them and detecting previous patterns.


Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has a huge sports wagering database that pumps out multiple March Madness betting patterns every year. And while he does not get on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the value in what he calls "anticipating span".


"There is a reason that Winston Churchill said, 'Those who fail to gain from history are destined duplicate it,'" Lawrence states. "By discovering failures and successes from the past and using abilities from today, we become much better, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, teams alter, however techniques and patterns are highly predictive ... By counting on past patterns, we can better expect span."


March Madness betting sites


March Madness is a popular time of year for sports wagerers and one of the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every betting site offering March Madness chances, it's essential to know which are safe and secure, offer a wide variety of banking alternatives, and offer you a lots of markets for each game. Have a look at the very best March Madness betting sites in your region, reviewed by Covers' team of experienced experts.