Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mostly describes why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team could be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the very first Canadian group because Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has actually been available in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini said. "I believe we'll probably take a little more Oilers cash even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I think we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't purchase the Oilers need to be favored.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious question: Are these two groups better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) a little worse than last year, specifically when you take a look at no Zach Hyman readily available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the 2nd skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him an opportunity to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred due to the fact that of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might provide it to him here, but that's something to watch as the games start. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly sticking out ... there is a real life where it could be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been viewed as a weakness on the roster, a track record that appeared to be sealed when he was benched 2 games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has enabled one or absolutely no goals in 5 of his past 7 starts, three of them nothings.


Another fantastic run in the web could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable in the past," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might finally reach the Panthers. Or they could just be on a heating unit having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers champion and though either result would be great with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be better.


"I don ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a little bit tougher because more individuals liked Florida, but people are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously could go either method and Oklahoma City is greatly favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has an opportunity to go 6 or seven video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)